This is how good I believe each team to be going into the playoffs (ie. with their starting goalie in) and what the Cup probabilities are based on. Kind of. These are with current lineups in place (injuries and scratches are considered) so each team’s Cup probabilities will consider players that are likely to return from injury and when.
Basically, I take every player’s projected Game Score (using a regressed and weighted three year average, with most recent seasons taking the largest precedent and each component being projected individually) and then combine them all for each team to get an expected win percentage. You can see that in action for each individual match-up here.
Last updated: May 2, 2017